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S&OP consultant, Saudi Arabia
I build sales and operations planning cycles that businesses actually keep running. If commercial and operations arrive at your monthly meeting with different numbers, the problem is not the forecast — it is that there is no process for turning two views into one plan. I am Basel Hegazi, an independent supply chain consultant based in Riyadh, working across Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf.
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Which of these is happening in your monthly cycle?
Choose one above and I will tell you where the problem usually sits.
When S&OP is the answer
Sales and operations planning is a monthly cycle that produces one agreed plan for the business — one demand number, one supply plan, and a decision on what to do where the two do not meet. It is a process, not a piece of software, and it is usually the right starting point when you recognise some of the following.
- Two sets of numbers
Commercial holds a target, operations holds a forecast, and finance holds a third figure. Every month is spent reconciling rather than deciding.
- The forecast has no owner
Accuracy is not measured, so nobody is accountable when it is wrong and nobody learns anything when it is right.
- Decisions get made in the corridor
Allocation, expediting and promotion calls happen informally between the same three people, and nobody else can see what was decided or why.
- Promotions surprise the supply chain
Marketing commits to a campaign and operations finds out when the orders arrive. In Saudi Arabia this is most costly around Ramadan and Eid, where a missed peak cannot be recovered.
- Write-offs are routine
Obsolete or short-dated stock is treated as a cost of doing business rather than as evidence that the plan and the buy are disconnected.
What the engagement builds
A working cycle
A fixed monthly calendar with five steps — data review, demand review, supply review, reconciliation, and a management meeting that actually decides things. Named owners and a standing agenda for each.
A measured forecast
Forecast accuracy and bias measured at the level you plan at, with a baseline, an owner, and a review that asks why rather than who.
Rules for the gaps
Agreed escalation for when demand exceeds supply: what gets allocated, who decides, and what the commercial consequence is. Written down before the argument, not during it.
A team that runs it
Planner training and role definition, so the cycle survives after I leave. This is the part most implementations skip and the reason most of them lapse within a year.
A first working cycle usually takes three to four months. Maturity — where the meeting is genuinely making decisions rather than reviewing history — takes longer, and depends more on whether the leadership team attends than on anything technical.
Background
Regional demand planning and operations management for The Estée Lauder Companies across the Middle East and Levant through a period of double-digit growth, and demand planning tools and process work at Johnson & Johnson. Group supply chain for an industrial and energy group in Riyadh. Work delivered in Arabic or English.
I worked with Basel to develop tools and processes supporting supply chain demand planning. He has in-depth knowledge of distributor replenishment planning, and is thoughtful of the most subtle details. He is hard working and determined, and aims to win.
Worked alongside Basel at Johnson & Johnson.
Basel HegaziIndependent supply chain consultant, Riyadh. Twenty years leading supply chain functions across the Middle East. Arabic and English.
Questions people ask
Do we need a planning system to run S&OP?
No. A working cycle can run on the ERP you have plus a well-built spreadsheet, and it should, at least at first. Buying a planning tool before the process works means automating a process nobody agrees on.
How long until the first cycle runs?
Three to four months in most businesses. The constraint is rarely data — it is getting the commercial and operations leadership to hold the same meeting every month and treat its output as binding.
We sell through distributors. Does S&OP still apply?
Yes, but the demand review has to distinguish between distributor purchases and end consumption. Planning against sell-in alone is how businesses end up building stock in the channel and then discounting it back out.
Who needs to be in the room?
Commercial, operations, finance and supply, with someone senior enough to make an allocation decision without leaving to ask. If that person does not attend, the cycle becomes a reporting meeting and stops being worth the time.
Tell me what is going wrong
Send a few lines on the situation and how you are measuring it. The first call is thirty minutes and costs nothing.
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